Data-driven analysis of voluntary carbon markets — deal flow, policy updates, project deep dives, and AI-powered market intelligence.
UN issuance data reveals a massive supply shock for legacy projects as Boeing signs its second CDR deal in four months.
The first Article 6.4 issuance saw a 41% volume cut. CORSIA prices are sliding from a supply flood. And Boeing just signed its second CDR deal in four months. We map the market bifurcation.
California and Washington market merger creates massive upside for CCAs and downside for WCAs.
As California and Washington link carbon markets, a $34 price spread is closing. We analyze the convergence to $40-$50/tonne and who wins and loses.
The era of buffer pools ends as the EU mandates financial assurance for DACCS, BioCCS, and Biochar, creating a premium asset class.
The EU's new CRCF methodologies signal a shift from voluntary standards to sovereign regulation, forcing developers to finance long-term custody.
With mandatory compliance starting in 2027, aviation faces a 900% price premium as authorized credit supply lags demand.
Aviation faces a 63-million-tonne carbon credit deficit for CORSIA Phase 2. Discover why prices could hit $60/tonne as the 2027 compliance wall approaches.
The UN's first Paris Agreement credits face scrutiny over inflated baselines and a looming flood of zombie projects.
The UN's first Article 6.4 issuance to a Myanmar cookstove project reveals systemic over-crediting risks, threatening the integrity of the new centralized market.
The first UN-approved Paris Agreement credits reveal a massive supply shock as stricter baselines slash project yields.
The first Article 6.4 issuance signals the end of the CDM era. With credit volumes cut by 40%, developers face a new integrity floor for carbon pricing.
The first Paris Agreement credits are live, but analysis suggests a 40% haircut on legacy CDM projects isn't enough to fix quality issues.
The UN's first Article 6.4 issuance of 60,000 credits sparks controversy. Analysis warns of 26x over-crediting despite new methodology adjustments.
Why African ARR forward contracts are repricing quality and stranding legacy spot credits
Microsoft's 15-year 1.8M-tonne Sierra Leone offtake signals a VCM regime shift as high-integrity African ARR supply tightens and legacy spot credits lose relevance.
As border carbon taxes go global, experts warn of a 'double penalty' for developing exporters like Mozambique.
The EU's CBAM has triggered a wave of global carbon border taxes. We analyze the compliance nightmare and the economic hit to poorer nations.
As EU industrials eye the UK's Cost Containment Mechanism, history suggests political discretion may render price caps ineffective.
Comparing the EU ETS Market Stability Reserve against the UK's price-based mechanism. Why a 'circuit breaker' might not solve European carbon market volatility.
Carbon prices hit 9-month lows as political rhetoric sparks a speculative washout before compliance buyers stabilize the market.
Italian Minister Urso's call to suspend the EU ETS caused a sharp drop in carbon prices to €69.33, driving a massive unwinding of speculative positions.
While Italy demands a freeze, shipping bodies propose using carbon revenues to fund the €10B green fuel transition.
Shipping emissions rose 13% in 2024 despite the EU ETS. New proposals urge Member States to reinvest carbon revenues into e-fuels to bridge the supply gap.
Paris seeks legal firewall to prevent international offsets from crashing EUA prices in the 2040 framework.
France formally requests clarification that Article 6 credits cannot be used for corporate EU ETS compliance, aiming to protect the market from cheap offsets.
Germany, France, and Italy demand action on volatility, signaling a shift from fundamental scarcity to political risk.
A coalition of 13 EU ministers has called for urgent ETS reform, triggering a massive sell-off that erased 25.1% of EUA value in just six weeks.
Brussels counters calls for lower prices with a plan to weaponize carbon revenues via a new Industrial Decarbonisation Bank.
The European Commission has unveiled a radical plan to transform the EU ETS into an investment engine, using high carbon prices to fund a €100bn industrial bank.
A powerful counter-offensive from Northern Europe challenges Italy's call to suspend the ETS, reshaping the EUA price outlook.
As EUA prices test support levels, a Nordic industry bloc urges the EU Commission to hold firm on carbon pricing, countering calls for market suspension.
Germany, Italy, and 11 others warn of "existential threat" to industry, calling for a freeze on free allowance phase-outs.
A 13-nation coalition warns of industrial collapse, demanding immediate EU ETS reforms and export rebates as chemical investment plummets 89%.
Rome's 'Energy Decree' and a 13-nation coalition threaten the stability of Europe's carbon market.
Italy demands a suspension of the EU ETS, triggering a massive sell-off in carbon allowances. Discover how this 'Friends of Industry' revolt impacts EUA prices.
15.2 million excess credits, a registry withdrawal, and months of warning signals
The Kariba REDD+ Project was one of the biggest carbon credit scandals in history. VCM.fyi's AI forensic scanning identified 7 critical findings across integrity, regulatory, social, and market categories.
How continuous intelligence tracking revealed a recovery story
While Kariba deteriorated, Katingan told the opposite story: a top-rated project at depressed prices during Indonesia's regulatory uncertainty, with steadily improving fundamentals.
What the data reveals about buyer behavior, portfolio risk, and the emerging quality tier in 2025
The voluntary carbon market in 2025 tells two stories. In one, transaction volumes have contracted 25% from their 2023 peak. In the other, a quality tier is emerging around the Integrity Council's Core Carbon Principles.
How Varaha's 18-Month Due Diligence and Early Farmer Onboarding Secured the Largest Soil Carbon Investment Ever
In November 2025, Mirova closed a $30 million prepurchase agreement with Varaha for carbon credits from a regenerative agriculture project in Northwest India.
Week of November 21, 2025
The two weeks spanning November 7-21, 2025, mark the most significant structural shift in carbon markets since the Paris Agreement was signed.
Week of November 6, 2025
The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) released a draft Corporate Net-Zero Standard (Version 2) for public consultation on November 6.
Week of October 10, 2025
An oversupply of credits has pressured prices, especially for nature-based offsets.
Week of September 25, 2025
Barclays inked its first major carbon dioxide removal (CDR) purchase agreement this week.
Week of September 19, 2025
Xpansiv and Korea Exchange (KRX) officially signed a strategic agreement to launch South Korea's new voluntary carbon market.
Week of August 28, 2025
ICVCM delivered landmark approvals: First-ever biochar and enhanced IFM methodologies earned CCP labels.
Week of August 8, 2025
Standard Chartered and the Brazilian state of Acre announced a multi-year deal to sell up to 5 million jurisdictional Amazon rainforest credits.
Week of August 1, 2025
A groundbreaking study published in Science revealed that 64% of Verra's certified auditors have signed off on problematic carbon projects.
Week of July 25, 2025
Clear, aligned, and stable rules across regulatory regimes.
Week of July 4, 2025
The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' signed into law this week fundamentally reshapes the voluntary carbon market landscape.
Week of June 27, 2025
Verra launched its final consultation for VCS Version 5, proposing game-changing updates.
Week of June 13, 2025
The voluntary carbon market is experiencing a historic shift. For the first time, we're approaching 'negative net issuance'.
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