Case Study: Katingan Peatland (VCS1477) — From Regulatory Freeze to AA Rating
How continuous intelligence tracking revealed a recovery story
The Project: Indonesia's Flagship Peatland Conservation
The Katingan Peatland Restoration and Conservation Project, developed by PT. Rimba Makmur Utama, protects 149,800 hectares of peat swamp forest in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. It is one of the world's largest tropical peatland conservation initiatives and a bellwether for the entire REDD+ category.
In 2022, Indonesia imposed a moratorium on international carbon credit transfers, effectively freezing Katingan and other Indonesian VCM projects in regulatory limbo. The question for buyers was: is this project still investable?
What VCM.fyi's AI Tracked Over 12 Months
VCM.fyi's forensic scanning identified 9 significant findings across 5 categories, painting a nuanced picture that simple rating snapshots miss:
Regulatory
Verra-Indonesia MRA signed: VCS projects can register on SRUK
October 2025 • Bullish — critical mechanism to end transfer freeze
Price
2020 vintage credits reach $9.00-$10.00/tCO2e price peaks
October 2025 • Bullish — significant quality premium and scarcity value
Regulatory
Presidential Regulation 110/2025 creates Carbon Unit Registry System (SRUK)
November 2025 • Bullish — legal certainty for IDX Carbon trading
Integrity
BeZero upgrades from A to AA — top 1% of 487 rated projects globally
February 2025 • Bullish — flight-to-quality status confirmed
Market
Equinor retires 75,952 tCO2e of Katingan credits for 2024 flights
February 2025 • Bullish — institutional demand despite VCM headwinds
The Intelligence Story: Bearish to Bullish
What makes Katingan instructive is the trajectory of signals. Unlike Kariba (VCS902), where every signal pointed to deterioration, Katingan's forensic timeline tells a recovery story:
2022-2023
Indonesia's transfer moratorium creates uncertainty. Regulatory risk dominates.
February 2025
BeZero AA upgrade. Equinor retirement confirms institutional confidence. Quality signal strengthens.
October 2025
Verra-Indonesia MRA signed. SRUK created. Transfer freeze begins to thaw. Regulatory path clearing.
November 2025
Presidential Regulation 110/2025 provides full legal framework. Prices hit $9-10/tCO2e. Market validates recovery.
For buyers who tracked these signals in real time, Katingan represented a contrarian opportunity — a top-rated project at depressed prices during regulatory uncertainty, with improving fundamentals.
The Buyer Intelligence Angle
VCM.fyi's buyer analytics showed that institutional buyers like Equinor, Shell, and Qantas continued acquiring Indonesian forest credits throughout the regulatory freeze — a strong signal that sophisticated market participants viewed the freeze as temporary, not permanent.
This kind of buy-side intelligence — knowing what the smart money is doing — is invisible from project-level data alone. It requires harmonized buyer tracking across registries.
Kariba vs. Katingan: Why Context Matters
| Dimension | Kariba (VCS902) | Katingan (VCS1477) |
|---|---|---|
| Signal trajectory | Consistently deteriorating | Improving over time |
| Rating trend | Downgraded to D, delisted | Upgraded to AA (top 1%) |
| Institutional buyers | Exiting positions | Continuing to buy |
| Regulatory direction | Registry withdrawal | New legal framework created |
| Community relations | Revenue diversion exposed | No community issues flagged |
| Price impact | Near-zero ("junk credit") | $9-10/tCO2e premium |
Both projects are REDD+ in developing countries. Both faced scrutiny. But the continuous intelligence signals told completely different stories. Static ratings at a single point in time cannot capture these dynamics.
How VCM.fyi helps
- Weekly signal tracking: Watch how project narratives evolve over time, not just point-in-time snapshots
- Country policy intelligence: Track Article 6 developments, CORSIA eligibility, and regulatory changes in 150+ countries
- Buyer activity signals: See what institutional buyers are doing before public announcements
- Deal flow detection: Catch offtake agreements, LOIs, and forward purchases as they happen
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