VCM.fyi Proponent Risk Monitor
Proponent Risk Assessment
AI-powered due diligence on carbon project developers, scoring risk across five dimensions with investment recommendations and source citations.
3,000+
Proponents Assessed
5
Risk Dimensions
4
Risk Levels
Monthly
Scanning Cadence
The Proponent Risk Monitor provides automated due diligence on carbon project developers (proponents). Every organization that develops carbon credit projects is assessed across five risk dimensions — governance, financial, legal, social, and institutional — with an overall risk rating and investment recommendation.
See It in Action
The Problem
Carbon credits are only as reliable as the organizations behind them. A project may have sound methodology and strong additionality, but if the developer has governance issues, financial instability, or a history of community conflicts, the credit carries hidden counterparty risk. Traditional due diligence on project developers requires hours of manual research per entity. With thousands of developers operating globally, systematic assessment at scale is impossible without automation.
How It Works
Developer Identification
Every project in the database is linked to its proponent (developer organization). The system identifies all unique proponents across the 6 supported registries and tracks which projects each developer manages.
Five-Dimension Risk Scanning
Each proponent is scanned using AI with search grounding across five risk dimensions: Governance (corporate structure, leadership, transparency), Financial (stability, funding sources, revenue model), Legal (litigation, regulatory compliance, contractual disputes), Social (community relations, indigenous rights, stakeholder conflicts), and Institutional (partnerships, certifications, registry standing).
Risk Scoring
Each dimension receives a risk level (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH, or CRITICAL). The overall proponent risk rating is derived from the highest individual dimension score — a single CRITICAL dimension makes the overall rating CRITICAL. This conservative approach ensures that severe risks in any area are not diluted by lower scores elsewhere.
Investment Recommendation
Based on the composite risk profile, each proponent receives an investment recommendation: PROCEED (low overall risk, no significant concerns), PROCEED WITH CONDITIONS (moderate risk, specific mitigation steps recommended), or DECLINE (high or critical risk, material concerns identified). Each recommendation includes specific findings and mitigation strategies.
Data Sources
- Public corporate registries and filings
- News outlets and investigative journalism
- Court records and legal databases
- Social media and community reports
- NGO and civil society publications
- Carbon registry project documentation
- Industry databases and partnership announcements
Technical Details
AI Engine
Proprietary AI with live web search grounding for real-time access to corporate filings, legal databases, and news sources.
Processing Pipeline
Monthly scanning cycle: gap analysis identifies proponents without assessments or with stale data, then runs a full parallel scan and merges results into the master proponent database.
Cross-Project Analysis
Proponents with multiple projects receive a portfolio-level assessment. If a developer manages 15 projects across 3 countries, the risk memo covers their entire portfolio footprint, not just individual projects.
Quality & Accuracy
- Every risk finding includes source citations — governance claims link to corporate filings, legal findings link to court records
- Conservative scoring methodology: overall rating reflects the worst-case dimension, preventing risk dilution
- Investment recommendations include specific mitigation strategies, not just ratings
- Monthly refresh ensures proponent profiles stay current as new information emerges
Update Frequency
Monthly. Proponents with significant new developments may be flagged for priority re-scanning through the weekly forensic intelligence pipeline.
Related Methodologies
Forensic Intelligence
AI-powered weekly scanning of every carbon project across 100+ sources, delivering categorized intelligence memos with verifiable citations.
Buyer Intelligence
Track 7,000+ carbon credit buyers with portfolio analytics, activity patterns, and AI-powered lead generation for project developers and brokers.
Check proponent risk for any project
Start with our free tier — no credit card required.